An excerpt from the all-new SIGN·AGE Magazine. In this article, we explore the crisis from the beginning of the pandemic until now — and offer a surprising analysis of the future.
By Ralph Setton
It’s been several months since the pandemic started. Businesses are struggling, and some are failing. There is no shortage of experts predicting doom and gloom — that we are in for an excruciating recovery and that some industries are gone forever. Are these predictions accurate, or are there other aspects that they haven’t considered, factors that would change the recovery game?
In this article, we explore the crisis from the beginning of the pandemic until now — and offer a surprising analysis of the future
5:30. The end of the workday at S&F Supplies. Finishing up, I get in my car, start the engine, and begin my drive home. Rolling past me are the familiar sights and sounds of a bustling day in Brooklyn: the buzz of pedestrian conversations all but drowned out by blaring horns, the hiss of truck brakes, and the constant low roar of motors running and innumerable tires rolling on pavement.
Except that some of the sights that I see can only be called familiar if you’re used to a global pandemic. The streets are full of people, almost all masked.
Restaurants are open for business, but only if you’re willing to eat outside, in the parking lane. There’s something else I can’t help but notice: Large “SALE!” and “EVERYTHING MUST GO” signs and banners on storefronts increasingly popping up. The implication is obvious: these stores are closing permanently.
This is Brooklyn after all, a lucrative home for countless businesses. When there are that many businesses in town, some are bound to fail. It’s unfortunate, but it is, as they say, the cost of doing business. But this is different. There just seem to be too many businesses failing — certainly more than in the pre-pandemic days.
OMINOUS SIGNS
We’re all familiar with the story: COVID-19 came, everything went haywire, and now we’re trying to find our collective bearings in a strange new world.
But what really happened?
To recount, the year 2020 started off with devastating Australian wildfires, Kobe Bryant’s tragic death in
a helicopter crash, and the U.S. military’s dramatic assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the second most powerful figure in Iran. There were also distant rumors of a new virus emerging in China.
The American populace mostly kept an attitude of indifference; there have been new viruses before, like SARS and Ebola, and we’ve emerged mostly untouched.
Reports of new cases started mounting, however, and things began looking serious at the end of February. On March 11, the WHO finally declared COVID-19 a pandemic, and the U.S. followed up on March 13 by declaring a national emergency.
From there, everything went downhill fast. On March 16, the DOW fell 2,997 points in the worst drop since 1987, and nationwide lockdowns soon followed as cases continued to rise.
The impact of the virus and subsequent lockdowns on the economy has been immeasurable. Experts predicted that many businesses would close — permanently.
Unfortunately, it seems they’re right, and nowhere is that more visible than on the streets of Brooklyn.
As of this writing, New York State’s stay-at-home order has long been lifted, and most of the state is now in the final phase of its four-stage reopening plan. Most businesses are permitted to function in some capacity, but with empty and shuttered storefronts abounding, it is apparent that survival has been difficult.
Make no mistake; business owners made valiant efforts to stay afloat. That meant taking advantage of government safety nets such as PPP and EIDL, even attempting private crowdfunding from local communities. Sadly, some just couldn’t make it, and they were forced to close shop permanently.
SIGNS OF A NEW BEGINNING
Energy can neither be created nor destroyed; it’s the first law of thermodynamics. Picture a hot oven cooling down. The oven’s heat is not gone; it’s just slowly transferred to the air around it.
Business, like energy, is never lost. Let’s call it economic energy; economic energy may ebb, but it will always come trickling, if not roaring back. As Aristotle posited: nature abhors a vacuum. Businesses will fail, but new enterprises will come in to take their places — which brings us back to Brooklyn.
“GRAND OPENING” — Always an exciting sign to see, but seeing such signs during a pandemic is interesting if a bit surprising. Taking a drive through Brooklyn, though, at least a few such signs catch my attention.
There aren’t many signs like them, but they definitely exist; which begs the question: Why would anyone think that now is a good time to open a business?
Tzvi G. was a full-time English teacher before the pandemic. When COVID-19 hit, he transitioned to remote learning and saw his work scaled back to part-time morning classes. Like most of us, he suddenly found himself with a lot of extra time — so he decided to start a business.
“I was looking for something that would be relevant, and not too difficult to start. That’s when I realized exterior cleaning would be perfect.” In late March, at the height of the pandemic in New York City, he recruited a business partner, bought some equipment, and hit the road. “I imagined that exterior cleaning would be popular. The time of year called for spring cleaning, and with a pandemic going on, keeping things clean would be more important than ever.”
Tzvi, in essence, took advantage of dormant economic energy. He realized that opportunity is always there, just waiting to be harnessed. In the case of the pandemic, economic energy flowed away from
businesses with physical storefronts, not disappearing, rather returning as potential energy to consumers’ wallets, waiting to be redistributed elsewhere.
Every “for sale” sign, every “everything must go” banner, indicates a business failing, but it also indicates that the same economic energy going elsewhere. Consumers have temporarily cut back their spending and in-person shopping, yet they will come back, and there will need to be another entity to fill their needs. In the meantime, there are other opportunities to take advantage of.
Wash Me, Tzvi’s exterior cleaning business, started out of his minivan, and it’s growing fast. “Was I apprehensive? Sure. But with time, I realized it’s not so scary after all.” Once he invested in equipment, he got the word out with good, old- fashioned flyers. “We use social media, but I found that old school marketing works best; lawn stakes and physical
media is the way to go. We put out flyers, and often receive calls the very next day.” His next step is to invest $25,000 in a truck, upgraded equipment, and a vehicle wrap.
While we ride the waves of the pandemic and wait for a return to normal, it’s encouraging to see businesses finding present opportunities. In Q2 2020, the Census Bureau reported over 880,000 new businesses formed, up by over 25,000 from Q2 2019. While some businesses die, many others are born.
The idea of starting a business now, braving worldwide uncertainty and a recession, may seem absurd. Yet if the names of General Motors, Hewlett-Packard, or Trader Joe’s sound familiar to you, then you are already aware of successful companies that started during economic downturns.
These companies, along with many other large businesses, including
a decent amount of Fortune 500 companies, all got their start during one recession or another. General Motors launched during the Panic of 1907. HP started out of a Palo Alto garage at the tail end of the Great Depression in 1939.
Trader Joe’s started as a humble convenience store chain, Pronto Markets, during the Recession of 1958.
This all shows that finding economic success during tough times is far from an impossibility.
SIGNS OF OPPORTUNITY
So we know businesses could be successful, and even thrive, during times of financial hardship. But what can you, as a sign maker or PSP, do to adapt?
Well, the good news is that you don’t have to start a new business during a recession to be successful. We need only look at the likes of Google and PayPal, which began in the ‘90s and survived the devastating dotcom burst, emerging as thriving companies afterward, to prove that point.
The key, however, to surviving and thriving through any recession is to think like a new business.
When starting a new business the very first step is to identify the market and the need, that you are going to fill. Once you identify this, you can focus your business accordingly.
For your existing business to weather and overcome these tough times, you will need to do the same. Previous opportunities may no longer be there, but there are always other areas and new markets to pivot and expand into.
Wash Me, for example, found that they benefit most from old-school marketing such as lawn stakes and flyers. To a PSP, that should ring a bell. Tzvi’s business focuses on exterior cleaning. He doesn’t have a storefront, but he still needs print services.
If a retail industry sign maker were solely focused on their current niche, to the exclusion of all else, they would now have a much harder time thriving than a PSP that decided to pivot and market to new businesses like Wash Me. An adaptive PSP will be able to locate the new and thriving businesses and market to them accordingly, for instance, to supply them with the old- school, yet effective marketing material they need.
While adaptation to new markets may not be able to replace a PSP’s previous income entirely, it will likely tide a PSP over until their previous niche picks back up — and make no mistake, business will return, it’s just a matter of when.
On an individual level, when a retailer shuts down their store, they’re not giving up their career. Most business owners will try again, perhaps in a new location, maybe in a new market. Additionally, the shuttered storefront itself is an opportunity. A now-empty storefront is a potential future lead, as another establishment will come to fill it.
The future is secure because businesses exist to fill needs, and most of those needs are not going away. There has no doubt been a considerable dip in consumer spending, but not because people no longer need products and services; instead, it is due to an external factor — a pandemic, and a pandemic, no matter how virulent, will never outright erase consumer needs.
Currently, the economic energy is somewhat dormant, but it will undoubtedly come back, even — especially — to the retail sector.
Driving through Brooklyn, empty storefronts now abound, indicative of countless shuttered businesses. In the not-too-distant future, however, those storefronts will be filled with new life and new businesses, and it will be the agile, adaptive sign makers who will breathe that new life into them.
Ralph Setton is the sales manager at S&F Supplies. Are you having trouble staying afloat, whether due to coronavirus, or any other issue? Please don’t hesitate to reach out to me. I have years of experience in dealing with business issues, and I will be more than happy to share my expertise with you. I can be reached by phone at 718-399-3333, extension 110, or by email at [email protected].